Our thoughts are not really that tough to interpret. We tend to overestimate our capabilities wildly, respond more earnestly to losses rather than profits. Also, while planning we neglect base rates and think our chances as the highest possible (sometimes better than best case scenario)
People as in general tend to view Entrepreneurship or businesses in general more on skill rather than luck. While in most successful businesses you may find rarely talented individuals, being talented in no ways guarantees success.